rumors abound

Habana 3/23 -- As a former professor of mine at Barcelona Technical College once remarked, "Secrecy begets ignorance." It is difficult, if not impossible, to tell what is happening in Havana at this critical point in Cuba's history. The announced speech by incoming President Raúl Castro has been, in the words of the official spokesperson, "delayed." What this means is anyone's guess. And guesswork undermines understanding.

Calls to official agencies lead nowhere. My contacts in the media are equally mystified. In the absence of reliable information, the rumormongers and conspiracy theorists have been given free rein.

The compadre on the corner who shines shoes and takes on other errands and chores for a greenback has become the most reliable, as well as colorful, observer of the increasingly tense situation in Cuba's capital. "We are only hours from an invasion," he says calmly. "The American navy has already landed Marines at Guantanamo, and soon the frigates will sail into Bahia de la Habana. Already los Americanos have named a puppet president, who at this moment is ready to board a plane in Miami. We'll soon be Yanqui slaves again."

His name is Ernesto. He delivers his vision of the future without rancor or malice. He has always been poor. He expects to remain poor. All he asks of life is an occasional tip, a daily shot of rum and a glass of cerveza.

A more chilling account comes from my Spanish compatriot, Miguel Onate, an engineer who represents a major international construction consortium working on new port facilities in Santiago. In a phone call, Miguel relates that many roads in the eastern part of the island have been blocked by the Cuban military. His company is unable to get shipments to the work site and military convoys have been seen moving in the area.

Miguel has his own rumors to report. Juan Carlos Robinson Agramonte, the party official sentenced to 12 years in prison last year for influence peddling, has allegedly been released. Robinson, a shining political star before his unexpected dismissal from the politburo, still has many admirers among Cuba's intelligentsia and academic circles.

But who knows? It is all rumor. And rumor, as we all know, is worth exactly what we've paid for it. The only thing I can say for sure is that no bus has run on the street below my window for the past two hours.

havana hombre